Will Mortgage Rates Go Down?
Where UK Fixed Rates Are Heading
Updated 27 October 2026
Not on the market’s pricing, not yet: two-year fixed rates are drifting down in small steps as lenders trim margin, five-year fixes are broadly flat, and the market prices a quarter-point rise in the base rate on 5 November at roughly a 90% chance, with cuts not priced until well beyond 2027. Our interest rate predictions UK page tracks that path from the live SONIA curve. This page covers what lenders actually did with fixed rates this week, what is already priced in, and when fixing, taking a tracker or waiting makes sense. Mortgage One is a whole of market mortgage adviser helping borrowers read the direction of UK fixed rates before they commit.
What lenders did this week with fixed mortgage rates
Lenders trimmed more than they raised this week: of the ten verified repricings below, nine moved down and one moved up, even though the market prices a base rate rise within days. That is cuts from margin rather than cheaper funding, and it is why the question of whether mortgage rates will go down has two different answers depending on whether you mean next week or next year.
| Lender | Product and LTV band | Previous rate | New rate | Direction | Effective |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC | 2-year fixed, 60% LTV, £999 fee | 5.04% | 4.96% | Down | 20 October 2026 |
| HSBC | 5-year fixed, 60% LTV, £999 fee | 5.06% | 4.99% | Down | 20 October 2026 |
| Halifax | 2-year fixed, 60% LTV, £1,099 fee | 4.85% | 4.78% | Down | 20 October 2026 |
| Halifax | 5-year fixed, 60% LTV, £1,099 fee | 4.82% | 4.78% | Down | 20 October 2026 |
| Santander | 2-year fixed, 60% LTV, £999 fee | 4.99% | 5.01% | Up | 21 October 2026 |
| Santander | 5-year fixed, 60% LTV, £999 fee | 4.96% | 4.94% | Down | 21 October 2026 |
| Santander | 2-year tracker, 60% LTV | 4.23% | 4.08% | Down | 21 October 2026 |
| Barclays | 2-year fixed, 90% LTV, £899 fee | 5.54% | 5.49% | Down | 16 October 2026 |
| Barclays | 5-year fixed, 90% LTV, £899 fee | 5.43% | 5.33% | Down | 16 October 2026 |
| Accord | 2-year remortgage fixed, 65% LTV, £495 fee | 5.38% | 5.32% | Down | 22 October 2026 |
Each row is read from the lender's own published range at the date shown and re-checked on 27 October 2026. Rates move weekly, so treat the table as the direction of travel rather than a quote.
The chart shows where the market prices Bank Rate over the next five years, read live from the same SONIA data as our Bank of England base rate forecast. Lenders price fixed rates off this curve, which is why fixes can rise weeks before the Bank moves.
Why fixed rates move before the Bank Rate does
Fixed mortgage rates are priced off swap rates, the wholesale cost of exchanging a variable rate for a fixed one, not off the base rate itself. Swaps move on expectations, so fixed deals reprice weeks before the Bank of England acts, in either direction. Our guide to swap rates and lender margin explains how a fixed rate is built from the swap plus the lender’s margin, and why that margin is where this week’s cuts came from.
The practical consequence: by the time a base rate cut is announced, the fixed deals on sale already assume it. Waiting for the announcement to get the benefit usually means arriving after the repricing, and the same mechanism worked against borrowers through the autumn, as our analysis of why mortgage rates are going up shows lender by lender.
The six-month view: what is already priced in
On the 26 October SONIA reading, the market puts Bank Rate at about 4.06% by December, so one rise is fully priced by the turn of the year, and at 4.52% by April 2027. A quarter-point rise on 5 November is priced at roughly a 90% chance against 10% for a hold. For fixed rates the message is that the next six months are already in the price: the cheapest two-year fixes sit around 4.96% and five-year fixes around 4.94% because lenders have assumed the rises arrive.
Over the next six months, fixed pricing is therefore more likely to wobble in a band than to fall away: small cuts from margin when lenders compete, as this week, and quick reversals when the curve steepens. The dated table on our current UK mortgage rates page shows the lowest two-year and five-year fixes by lender, re-checked after each repricing wave.
Mortgage rates in 2027
The market does not price 2027 as the year mortgage rates go down. The same SONIA curve puts Bank Rate at 4.92% by October 2027, peaking just under 5% in early 2028, before easing only slowly to about 4.90% by October 2028. If that path holds, fixed rates spend 2027 flat to slightly higher rather than falling, and the first meaningful declines in fixed pricing would arrive only once the market starts pricing the turn, which on today’s curve sits beyond 2028.
A curve is pricing, not fate: it has been wrong in both directions before, and a recession, a fast fall in inflation or a fiscal shock would redraw it. But it is the pricing lenders use today, which is why deals on sale now already assume the 2027 the curve describes.
When it makes sense to fix
Fix when certainty is worth more to you than the chance of a lower rate later: a deal ending within six months, a budget that cannot absorb a payment jump, or a loan size where a half-point move hurts. Most lenders let you reserve a deal up to six months ahead and switch to a cheaper one if pricing improves before completion, so reserving early caps your downside without giving up the upside. Our analysis of whether to fix your mortgage now or wait weighs the decision in full against the 5 November meeting.
If your current deal ends within the next six months and you want a rate reserved before 5 November, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
When a tracker makes more sense
Trackers currently undercut fixes by about a point: the lowest two-year tracker sits at 3.99% with Halifax, at 0.24 points over the base rate, against two-year fixes near 4.96%. A tracker wins while the base rate stays low enough, and most big-lender trackers carry no early repayment charge, so you can step off to a fix later. The risk is the path above: three rises are priced within a year, which would carry that tracker to about 4.74%. Our tracker mortgage rates table compares pay rates, margins and exit terms by lender.
If you are weighing a tracker against a fix for a purchase or remortgage, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
When waiting can pay, and what it costs
Waiting pays only if fixed pricing falls while you wait, and this week’s margin-led cuts show that does happen in small steps even into a rising market. The cost is the other side: a deal that lapses rolls onto the lender’s standard variable rate, usually 6% to 7%, and a repricing wave can remove today’s deals overnight. Our round-up of lenders cutting mortgage rates names who is trimming this month, and our remortgage rates table shows the lowest deals by lender for borrowers whose fix is ending.
For a free initial consultation on whether waiting past 5 November would pay in your case, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
The information provided in this article is for general guidance only and does not constitute personal or regulated financial advice. If you’d like to understand what these moves could mean for you, speak to Mortgage One. We can explain your options and timings based on your specific circumstances.
FAQs
1. Will mortgage rates go down in 2026? Not on current pricing. The market prices a quarter-point rise in the base rate on 5 November at roughly a 90% chance, and the SONIA curve puts Bank Rate higher through 2027. Lenders still trim fixed rates in small steps from margin, as this week's table shows, but a broad fall in fixed pricing is not what the market expects this year.
2. Are mortgage rates going down right now? At the margins, yes. Nine of the ten verified lender repricings in the week to 22 October were reductions, led by HSBC, Halifax and Barclays, with Santander the only riser. The moves are small, typically 0.02 to 0.10 points, and they come from lenders competing on margin rather than from cheaper funding, so they can reverse quickly.
3. When will mortgage rates go down properly? On the market's current pricing, not before the curve turns. Bank Rate is priced at about 4.92% by October 2027 and just under 5% in early 2028, easing only slowly after that. Fixed rates would start falling meaningfully once markets begin pricing cuts, and fixed pricing usually moves before the Bank does, in both directions.
4. Will mortgage rates go down in 2027? The market prices 2027 as a rising year, not a falling one, with Bank Rate at about 4.52% by April 2027 and 4.92% by October 2027 on the 26 October SONIA reading. If that path holds, fixed rates spend 2027 flat to slightly higher. A curve is pricing rather than a promise, and a weaker economy or faster disinflation would redraw it.
5. Are mortgage rates going down in the UK compared with other countries? UK fixed rates follow sterling swap rates, which are priced off UK inflation and Bank of England expectations rather than overseas rates. With UK inflation at 3.5% in September and a rise priced for 5 November, UK pricing points higher while some other markets price cuts. That gap is why UK fixes have not followed moves abroad this autumn.
6. Should I wait for mortgage rates to go down before fixing? Waiting is a bet that pricing improves before your current deal ends. Most lenders let you reserve a deal up to six months ahead and switch to a cheaper one if pricing falls before completion, so reserving early keeps the benefit of any fall without the risk of a rise. A lapsed deal rolls onto the standard variable rate, which is usually far more expensive.