Are Mortgage Rates Going Up? Why Lenders Moved Before the Bank Did
Updated 27 October 2026
Mortgage rates went up before the Bank of England moved, and the next test is its decision on 5 November 2026. Around 25 lenders raised fixed rates in the week to Friday 11 September, pushing the Moneyfacts average two-year fix to 5.67% and the five-year to 5.72%, and HSBC, Santander, NatWest, Halifax and TSB raised again in the weeks that followed. October has been flatter, with small cuts at HSBC, Halifax, Santander and TSB, while markets price a rise in Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4% as the clear favourite. This page explains who moved, why fixed pricing rose ahead of the Bank, and what a borrower with a deal ending soon should do now. Mortgage One is a whole of market mortgage adviser helping borrowers lock a fixed rate while lenders reprice ahead of the Bank of England.
For a free initial consultation on securing a rate before the 5 November decision reaches your loan-to-value band, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
Are mortgage rates going up in the UK right now?
Fixed rates went up sharply in September 2026 and have levelled off in October. Around 25 lenders repriced in the week to 11 September, when Moneyfacts put the average two-year fix at 5.67%. Since then HSBC's lowest 2-year fix at 60% LTV has moved from 5.04% after its 23 September rise to 4.96% on 27 October.
The direction matters more than the level. In early August the Moneyfacts averages sat at 5.63% and 5.66% and lenders were cutting, so September gave the whole of the summer's easing back in a fortnight. October has moved the other way at the margin. Halifax cut selected purchase fixes on 9 and 20 October, HSBC cut on 15 October and put part of it back on 20 October, and Santander's 21 October changes left its 2-year fix at 60% LTV at 5.01% and its 5-year at 4.94%, both on a £999 fee. Our chart of average fixed rates by LTV band shows how far each tier sits from the headline average, and our comparison of 2-year and 5-year fixed deals works through which term suits you once the level settles.
Whether UK mortgage rates are going up for you depends on when you apply, not just on the averages. A rate is only held once a product is booked or a full application is submitted, and in a repricing week the lowest deals are withdrawn first, often with a day's notice or none. Mortgage rates rising in the averages is the lagging signal. The leading one is the withdrawal notice landing in a broker's inbox at four o'clock on a Tuesday.
Which lenders raised mortgage rates before the Bank of England vote
HSBC raised two-year and five-year fixed rates from 7 September 2026 and again on 15 and 23 September, and Nationwide raised selected fixes from 10 September, leaving its lowest five-year fix at 4.59%. Santander, NatWest, Halifax and TSB followed through September and into early October, and Moneyfacts counted around 25 lenders moving in the week to 11 September alone. Lloyds moved in step with Halifax, and our Lloyds Bank mortgage rates page shows where its remortgage range now sits on a checked date.
Nationwide's move is the one the market watches, because it is the lender that led the cuts. On 4 August it reduced fixed rates by up to 0.19 percentage points and took its lowest fix to 4.52%. By 10 September that lowest rate was 4.59% and the society was raising rather than cutting. Our Nationwide mortgage rates table shows where its range now sits on a stated checked date. HSBC's rise came first and was broad: two and five-year fixes across purchase, remortgage, Fee Saver, Standard and Premier Exclusive lines, with existing product codes only honoured for applications submitted by midnight on 4 September. Our HSBC mortgage rates page carries its range as it stands after the October changes, 4.96% on a 2-year fix and 4.99% on a 5-year at 60% LTV on 27 October.
Mortgage rates increasing at Nationwide, HSBC, Lloyds, Halifax and Santander inside one week is not a pricing skirmish. It is the same funding move landing in every treasury department at once. Adam French, head of consumer finance at Moneyfacts, said mortgage rates had only just caught up with earlier increases in swap rates, so lenders would now face further pressure to reprice. The August wave that our lender rate cuts round-up tracked ran the other way for the same reason. Swaps fell, so fixed rates followed. In September swaps jumped, and fixed rates followed that instead.
Why are mortgage rates going up when the base rate has not moved?
Mortgage rates are going up because fixed deals are priced from swap rates, not from Bank Rate. Swap rates jumped as the ten-year gilt yield climbed above 5.25% in early September 2026, its highest since 2007, while Bank Rate has sat at 3.75% since December 2025. Lenders reprice to their funding cost, and that cost rose first.
A fixed-rate mortgage is a funding cost plus a margin. The lender hedges a two-year fix against the two-year swap and a five-year fix against the five-year swap, then adds a margin that has to cover capital, servicing, credit risk and distribution. When swaps rise 20 or 30 basis points in a week, every product still on sale at the old price is losing margin on each application in the pipeline, and the lender has two choices: reprice or withdraw. Our swap rates and lender margin chart shows how thin that margin already was before the move, which is why the pass-through has been so quick.
The reason swaps jumped sits in the bond market. Renewed conflict in the Middle East has kept energy prices high and reopened the inflation question, and the European Central Bank raised its own rate in the second week of September. Investors have demanded a higher yield to hold government debt, gilts have sold off, and swaps have tracked them. Rachel Springall of Moneyfacts put it plainly: swap rates are much higher than they were a month ago and are a key influence on how lenders price their fixed-rate mortgages. Our explainer on how gilt yields drive fixed rates walks through that chain from bond auction to mortgage offer, with September 2022 as the working example of what happens when it moves too fast. The 28 October Budget was the latest test of that chain, and our page on how the Budget affects mortgage rates sets out how gilts reacted and what comes next for lenders.
None of this required the Bank of England to act. Bank Rate anchors tracker and variable pricing, and our tracker mortgage guide covers what a rise on 5 November would do to those products directly. Fixed pricing answers to where the market expects Bank Rate to go, and the market has moved from pricing cuts to pricing rises. That is the whole story of why are mortgage rates going up in a month when the official rate did not.
To find out which lenders have not yet repriced for your loan size and deposit band, and how long that is likely to hold, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
What the 5 November Bank of England vote could do to fixed pricing
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026 on a six-to-three vote, and at 20 October markets priced a rise to 4% on 5 November at roughly 90%. Fixed rates already carry that rise, so a rise on its own would add little to fixed pricing and a hold could bring cuts.
The September vote is why the rise is priced. The Monetary Policy Committee held at 3.75% on 17 September on a six-to-three vote, with Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voting again for a rise to 4%, as they had on 30 July. Two more votes would change the rate. The decision and the November Monetary Policy Report arrive together on Thursday 5 November. Our page on the next Bank of England meeting carries the vote count, the timetable and what each outcome would mean for tracker and fixed pricing.
The path beyond 5 November is the honest answer to whether mortgage rates will go up further, and markets expect more than one rise. The SONIA curve read on 27 October, built from Bank of England data to 23 October, puts Bank Rate at 4.49% by April 2027 and 4.89% by October 2027, easing to 4.75% by October 2031. Those are expectations rather than decisions, and our interest rate predictions UK tracks where the SONIA curve puts the path week by week around each meeting.
For fixed-rate borrowers the practical point is that the market's expectation is already in the price. A five-year fix quoted today is priced off a five-year swap that assumes Bank Rate rises, so the decision itself changes fixed pricing only where it surprises. Set against the Bank of England base rate history a 4% Bank Rate would sit below the long-run average rather than above it, which is not how most borrowers who fixed at 2% in 2021 read it.
The chart shows where the market prices Bank Rate over the next five years, read live from the same SONIA data as our Bank of England base rate forecast. Lenders price fixed rates off this curve, which is why fixes can rise weeks before the Bank moves.
What a 0.25 point rise adds to a typical mortgage payment
A 0.25 percentage point increase on a 4.96% two-year fix, HSBC's lowest at 60% LTV on 27 October 2026, adds about £37 a month to a £250,000 repayment mortgage over 25 years, £22 on £150,000 and £59 on £400,000, or around £440 a year on the £250,000 loan. That is the cost of one lender reprice, and September brought several.
The arithmetic is worth doing on your own balance rather than the averages. On a £250,000 loan over 25 years the monthly payment at 4.96% is about £1,456 and at 5.21% about £1,492. The same 0.25 points on Santander's 4.94% five-year fix at 60% LTV takes the payment from about £1,453 to about £1,489. Each reprice is small on its own. The problem for a borrower waiting is that September brought three of them in a fortnight at some lenders, and a decision on 5 November that signals more rises than the market expects would push swaps further before the next round. Our fixed-rate mortgage guide covers how the two-year and five-year terms trade certainty against flexibility once the level is set.
The sharper cost sits with anyone who lets a deal lapse. Every fixed deal reverts to the lender's standard variable rate when it ends, and our current standard variable rate chart shows what reverting costs against a new fix. A borrower who drifts onto the SVR in a rising week pays the reversion premium and then applies into a dearer market a month later, which is the worst sequence available.
Should you lock in a mortgage rate before 5 November?
If your deal ends within six months, yes, lock in a mortgage rate now. Most lenders let you reserve a rate up to six months ahead and switch to a cheaper one if pricing falls before completion, so a reservation this week caps the downside of a rise on 5 November without giving up the upside of a hold.
What holds a rate is a product booked or a full application submitted before the lender's withdrawal deadline. A decision in principle does not hold pricing and neither does a broker's illustration. Once booked, most lenders honour the rate through to offer, and most allow a switch to a lower rate if their range falls before completion, so booking early in a rising week carries little downside. Our analysis of whether to fix now or wait set out in July why the balance of risk had turned higher, and September confirmed it.
The route depends on the case. A product transfer with your existing lender is quick, needs no fresh affordability check and prices from one range on one day. A remortgage opens the whole of market and can win on rate or let you borrow more, at the cost of fresh underwriting and a few weeks of legal work. Our remortgaging guide weighs the two on total cost and our product transfer guide covers the reservation windows. After two months in which the biggest lenders have repriced in both directions, the spread between the lender that fits your case and the one that fitted it in August has widened, and a whole of market mortgage broker reads that spread daily.
For buyers mid-purchase the priority is the offer. A mortgage offer holds its rate for the offer period, typically six months, so an application submitted this week carries the current price through a chain that may not complete until spring, with a switch to a lower rate usually available if the market turns before exchange. Waiting for 5 November to see which way the vote goes buys information the swap market has already priced, at the risk of another reprice the day after. Our analysis of will mortgage rates go down covers the other side of that decision with the same curve data.
Figures as of 27 October 2026, London.
If your current deal ends within the next six months and you want a rate reserved before the 5 November announcement, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
Back to interest rate predictions UK
The information provided in this article is for general guidance only and does not constitute personal or regulated financial advice. If you'd like to understand what these moves could mean for you, speak to Mortgage One. We can explain your options and timings based on your specific circumstances.
FAQs
1. Are mortgage rates likely to go up in the UK? Fixed mortgage rates went up sharply in September 2026, when around 25 lenders repriced in a week, and have levelled off in October with small cuts at HSBC, Halifax and Santander. Whether they rise again depends on swap rates, which track where markets expect Bank Rate to go, and at 20 October markets priced a rise to 4% on 5 November at roughly 90%. Fixed pricing can move before the Bank of England does, in either direction.
2. Why are mortgage rates going up when the Bank of England has not raised rates? Because fixed mortgage rates are priced from swap rates rather than Bank Rate. Swap rates jumped in early September 2026 as gilt yields climbed, with the ten-year gilt above 5.25% for the first time since 2007, and lenders repriced to their higher funding cost while Bank Rate stayed at 3.75%. The Bank of England only sets tracker and variable pricing directly.
3. Will mortgage rates go up after the 5 November decision? A rise to 4% on 5 November is largely priced into swap rates already, so on its own it would add little to fixed pricing. A hold, priced at roughly 10% at 20 October, would be the surprise and could pull fixed rates lower. Fixed rates respond to surprises against the market curve, and to what the Bank signals about later meetings, not to the decision on its own.
4. Are mortgage rates expected to go up or down over the next year? Markets expect Bank Rate to go up. The SONIA curve read on 27 October 2026 puts it at 4.49% by April 2027 and 4.89% by October 2027, against 3.75% today. Fixed mortgage pricing already reflects that path, so fixed deals would need swap rates to fall below it to get cheaper, and a rise faster than the curve to get dearer.
5. How much are mortgage rates going up by? The Moneyfacts average two-year fix rose from 5.63% in early August 2026 to 5.67% on 11 September and the five-year from 5.66% to 5.72%. Individual lender moves are larger than the averages suggest, because the averages blend products that have not yet repriced. On a £250,000 repayment mortgage over 25 years, each 0.25 point rise on a 4.96% fix adds about £37 a month, and in October the largest lenders have given a little of September's rise back.
6. Is it better to fix for 2 or 5 years when rates are rising? A five-year fix locks the current price through a period when markets expect Bank Rate to rise, at the cost of higher early repayment charges if your plans change. A two-year fix returns you to the market sooner, which suits a borrower who expects the current rise to reverse. On 27 October 2026 HSBC's 2-year and 5-year fixes at 60% LTV sat 0.03 points apart, at 4.96% and 4.99%, so fees, loan size and your own plans decide it more than the rate gap does.
7. Can a broker still get a rate that has been withdrawn? No lender reopens a withdrawn rate, but a broker sees withdrawal notices as they land and can submit a full application the same day to book a rate before the deadline, which is usually hours rather than days in a repricing week. Mortgage One is a whole of market mortgage adviser arranging residential, buy-to-let, expat and seafarer cases, and the initial consultation is free.