Next Bank of England Meeting: Two Votes From a September Hike
The next Bank of England meeting concludes on Thursday 17 September 2026, with the decision announced at 12 noon. Bank Rate sits at 3.75%, but the last vote was 6-3 with three members pushing for 4%, inflation has climbed back to 2.9%, and markets have moved from pricing cuts to pricing the first rise. Two more votes would change the rate. Mortgage One is a whole of market mortgage adviser helping borrowers reserve and compare fixed deals ahead of the September Bank Rate decision.
For a free initial consultation on locking a rate before the 17 September announcement, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
When is the next Bank of England meeting and when is the decision?
The next Bank of England meeting concludes on Thursday 17 September 2026, with Bank Rate announced at 12 noon alongside the minutes. Two more meetings follow in 2026: 5 November, which carries the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, and 17 December. The first provisional 2027 date is Thursday 4 February, also a Monetary Policy Report meeting.
Remaining Bank of England meeting dates:
· Thursday 17 September 2026
· Thursday 5 November 2026, with the quarterly Monetary Policy Report
· Thursday 17 December 2026
· Thursday 4 February 2027, with the Monetary Policy Report
· Thursday 18 March 2027
· Thursday 29 April 2027, with the Monetary Policy Report
· Thursday 17 June 2027
· Thursday 29 July 2027, with the Monetary Policy Report
· Thursday 16 September 2027
· Thursday 4 November 2027, with the Monetary Policy Report
· Thursday 16 December 2027
September carries more weight than July did. The August inflation figures land on Wednesday 16 September at 7am, the morning before the decision, so the Committee votes with two further Consumer Prices Index prints and two more labour market releases in hand. That is enough evidence to judge whether the energy shock has reached services inflation and pay settlements or stayed in the headline number. The 5 November meeting matters more again, because forecast-round meetings are where policy direction tends to turn. For the full series of decisions since 1975, our base rate history chart puts the current hold in context.
What did the Bank of England decide on 30 July 2026?
The Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July 2026, voting 6-3. Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voted for an immediate rise to 4%. In February the same Committee split 5-4, with four members voting to cut. Bank Rate has been unchanged since the cut to 3.75% in December 2025.
Andrew Bailey used the press conference to shut down the obvious reading, telling reporters not to leave the room thinking the Bank was edging towards a hike. He framed the hold as the right answer to global conditions that look more uncertain and inflationary, set against domestic conditions he described as, on balance, more benign.
The data since has not helped his case. Consumer Prices Index inflation rose to 2.9% in the year to July 2026 from 2.6% in June, driven by gas, electricity and household costs, though services inflation eased to 3.4% from 3.6% and core inflation held at 2.6%. That split is the whole September argument in one release: the headline is moving the wrong way, the underlying measures are not, and each camp on the Committee can point to the number that suits it.
The Governor still holds the centre of the Committee and the centre still wants to wait. But a Governor having to state out loud that a hike is not coming is itself new. Nobody was asking that question in February.
How the MPC vote has flipped from four cuts to three hikes
In February 2026 four of nine members voted to cut Bank Rate to 3.5%. By 30 July, three were voting to raise it to 4%. The Committee has moved one vote further in the hawkish direction at every meeting since March, when it held unanimously. None of that shows in the headline rate.
The 2026 record, meeting by meeting:
· 5 February: held 5-4, with four members voting to cut to 3.5%
· 19 March: held 9-0
· 30 April: held 8-1, with one member voting to rise to 4%
· 18 June: held 7-2, with two members voting to rise to 4%
· 30 July: held 6-3, with three members voting to rise to 4%
Read down that list and the direction is unambiguous. Five meetings, five different splits, moving one vote at a time in the same direction. Two more members switching would produce a rise, and the three already there are not marginal figures: Huw Pill is the Bank's Chief Economist.
Their stated reasons differ. Catherine Mann pointed to the collapse of the United States and Iran memorandum of understanding and the widening Middle East conflict, which has put energy prices back on the agenda after eighteen months as a disinflationary force. Megan Greene argued a proactive rise would cut the odds of second-round effects taking hold. Huw Pill made the signalling case, that raising now sends a clear and unambiguous message about how the Committee will respond to commodity volatility.
For a borrower none of that is academic. Swap markets read vote splits, which is why fixed pricing can move on a meeting where the rate did not. Our interest rate projection tracks where that path is heading over the coming quarters.
Will the Bank of England raise interest rates in September?
A hold at 3.75% remains the central expectation for 17 September, but a rise is a live risk rather than a tail risk. In mid-August markets priced roughly a one-in-four chance of a September increase, and the market-implied path puts Bank Rate at 4% by November and around 4.25% in early 2027.
Forecasters are split rather than settled. Bank of America and Oxford Economics expect no change through 2026, ING sees little reason to hike this year and expects cuts to resume in 2027, while Deutsche Bank holds a no-change call but says the odds of a rise are increasing. That spread of views is itself the point: a year ago every forecaster agreed on the direction and disagreed only on timing.
What would tip two more votes is the 16 September inflation print. A headline reading above 3% with services inflation turning back up would give the dissenters the second-round evidence they have been asking for. A soft print with services easing further would let the centre hold and push the argument to the 5 November forecast round. Either way, fixed mortgage pricing will move on the signal in the minutes, not on the rate itself.
The political calendar sits underneath all of this. Andy Burnham took office as Prime Minister on 20 July, the Autumn Budget is still to be framed, and gilt yields have been moving on fiscal expectations since. Our note on Andy Burnham and UK mortgage rates sets out how that channel feeds through to fixed pricing, and our analysis of whether to fix your mortgage now or wait weighs that decision against it.
Why swap rates matter more than the base rate right now
Fixed mortgages are priced from swap rates, not Bank Rate. Swaps price the expected path of Bank Rate over the term of the fix, so a 6-3 vote lifts them even when the rate does not move. That is why lenders repriced fixed deals higher in July and lower again in August with no Bank Rate change in between.
This is the single most useful thing to understand about mortgage pricing, and almost nothing written about base rate decisions explains it. A hold does not mean fixed rates hold. Our swap rates and lender margin chart plots the swap line against the average five-year fix every month since 2009, and the gap between them is where the lender's capital, operating cost, risk and profit sit.
Moneyfacts put the average two-year fix at 5.63% and the average five-year at 5.66% at the start of August 2026, both up from 5.52% a month earlier after lenders reversed their July cuts on swap volatility. The average standard variable rate sat at 7.13%. Where each loan-to-value band prices today is on our UK mortgage rates chart, and the current two-year versus five-year comparison is on our current UK mortgage rates page.
The best buy table tells a different story from the averages. Market-leading two-year fixes carry four-figure product fees precisely because the headline rate sits at or below the swap, and no lender funds below cost. The fee is what restores the margin, which is why a best buy and the lowest total cost for your actual loan size are frequently different products.
If you want the swap-adjusted view of your own options rather than a best buy table, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
What a 0.25% rate move actually costs each month
On a 25-year repayment mortgage a 0.25% rise adds roughly £22 a month on £150,000, £37 on £250,000 and £60 on £400,000 at current rate levels. Tracker holders feel that within a billing cycle of any decision. Fixed-rate holders feel nothing on the day, which is precisely why the meeting is the wrong thing to watch.
The monthly effect of a quarter-point move, 25-year repayment basis, from a starting rate of 5.5%:
· £150,000: about £22 a month, £270 a year
· £250,000: about £37 a month, £450 a year
· £400,000: about £60 a month, £720 a year
Set that against the number that actually hurts. Rolling off a 4.5% fix onto an average standard variable rate of 7.13% adds around £400 a month on a £250,000 repayment mortgage over 25 years. That is eleven quarter-point base rate rises arriving on a single day, and it happens automatically to anyone who lets a deal expire without acting. Our standard variable rate chart shows how slowly that revert rate has followed Bank Rate down.
The base rate decision is a rounding error next to the deal-end date. If you are on a tracker and weighing whether to move onto a fix before September, our fixed or tracker mortgage comparison sets out both sides.
Should you fix before the 17 September decision?
Most lenders allow a new rate to be reserved up to six months before completion, with a switch down if pricing improves before you complete. That option is worth more with three MPC members voting for 4% and the market pricing a rise by November. The date that governs the decision is your deal-end date, not the meeting date.
Reserving is not committing. Where a lender permits a switch down, the reservation behaves as a ceiling on what you pay rather than a fixed choice, so locking early costs the borrower very little and locking late removes the option entirely. Terms differ by lender and by product, and that difference is worth checking before you pick on rate alone.
The second half of the decision is the fee, and this is where headline comparison falls apart. Take a 4.20% two-year fix with a £999 fee against a fee-free alternative. Over the two-year term, on a 25-year repayment basis, the fee-loaded product only wins up to a crossover rate that moves with loan size:
· £150,000: the fee-loaded deal wins only if the fee-free alternative is above about 4.54%
· £250,000: the crossover sits at about 4.40%
· £400,000: the crossover sits at about 4.33%
The larger the loan, the more the fee spreads and the more a low headline rate wins. On smaller loans a fee-free product frequently beats a visibly better rate. Sourcing systems rank on headline rate by default, which is how borrowers end up in the wrong product with the right-looking number.
Timing and product structure are separate decisions and both need answering. If you are weighing a product transfer against moving lender, the remortgaging guide compares the two routes on total cost rather than headline rate, and the product transfer guide covers how a switch with your existing lender works before 17 September.
Figures as of 29 August 2026, London.
If your deal ends inside the next six months and you have not yet reserved a rate for the autumn, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
Back to Rate Forecast and Economic Drivers
The information provided in this article is for general guidance only and does not constitute personal or regulated financial advice. If you'd like to understand what these moves could mean for you, speak to Mortgage One. We can explain your options and timings based on your specific circumstances.
FAQs
1. When is the next Bank of England meeting?
Thursday 17 September 2026, with the decision announced at 12 noon UK time alongside the minutes. The remaining 2026 dates are 5 November, which carries the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, and 17 December. The 2027 provisional dates begin on Thursday 4 February.
2. What date is the next Bank of England interest rate meeting after September?
Thursday 5 November 2026. That meeting comes with the quarterly Monetary Policy Report and fresh forecasts, which is why it carries more weight than a summary-only meeting. The final 2026 decision is on Thursday 17 December.
3. What did the Bank of England decide on 30 July 2026?
The Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6 votes to 3. Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voted for an immediate rise to 4%. Bank Rate has been unchanged since the cut in December 2025.
4. Will the Bank of England raise interest rates in September?
It is a live possibility rather than the base case. Three of nine members voted for 4% on 30 July, so two more would need to switch. Markets priced roughly a one-in-four chance of a September rise in mid-August, and the August inflation figures on 16 September are the last major data before the vote.
5. When can we expect interest rates to go down again?
Not on current market pricing. The market-implied path has Bank Rate at 4% by November 2026 and around 4.25% in early 2027 before it turns lower. Some forecasters, including ING, expect cuts to resume in 2027. Fixed mortgage rates follow swap rates, which will move before any cut is announced.
6. Should I fix for 2 or 5 years now?
With average two-year and five-year fixed rates only 0.03 points apart, the rate gap barely matters. A two-year fix keeps you flexible if you expect the path to turn lower in 2027. A five-year fix buys certainty through a hardening outlook and an unsettled fiscal backdrop. Fees and loan size decide more than the headline rate.
7. How much would a 0.25% rate rise cost me each month?
On a 25-year repayment mortgage from a starting rate of 5.5%, roughly £22 a month on £150,000, £37 on £250,000 and £60 on £400,000. Tracker holders see it almost immediately. Anyone on a fixed rate sees nothing until their deal ends.
8. Should I reserve a mortgage rate now or wait for 17 September?
Where a lender allows a switch down, reserving early sets a ceiling rather than a commitment, so waiting rarely buys anything and can cost the option entirely. Mortgage One compares reservation windows, switch-down terms, fees and revert rates across the whole of market, and the more useful question is how many months remain on your current deal.