Mortgage Rates in 2026: Autumn Rises and the Two-Year Fix Bet
Mortgage rates in 2026 have swung twice: sharp rises through the spring, two months of falls into early summer, then a second climb through September that has taken average fixed pricing close to 6%. Through all of it borrowers have kept making the same choice, comparing two-year fixes in growing numbers. This article covers where pricing stands now, why demand stays with the shorter fix, and what it means if your own deal is ending soon. Mortgage One is a whole of market mortgage adviser comparing two-year and five-year fixed deals for borrowers whose rates end in 2026 and 2027.
For a free initial consultation on where this autumn's pricing leaves your next deal, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
Average fixed rates near 5.9% after a second month of rises
The average two-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.92% and the average five-year at 5.94% on 25 September 2026, according to Moneyfacts, after major lenders raised fixed rates for the second or third time this month. That reverses the falls of May and June, when the two-year average dropped to 5.68%.
The June figures now read as the floor of the year. The average two-year fix fell from 5.78% in May to 5.68% in June 2026, its largest monthly fall in over a year, and product choice climbed back above 7,000 deals for the first time since March. Both trends have since turned on pricing, though not on choice. September brought repeated lender repricing, with Barclays, Halifax, TSB, Leeds Building Society, Kensington and BM Solutions all raising fixed rates late in the month and some moves reaching 0.43 percentage points.
The late September 2026 Moneyfacts data at a glance:
· Average two-year fixed rate: 5.92%, up from the June low of 5.68%
· Average five-year fixed rate: 5.94%, up from 5.63% in June
· Product choice: 7,418 residential deals on sale
· Average standard variable rate: unchanged at 7.13%
Figures as of 28 September 2026, London.
Headline averages mask a wide spread by deposit size, loan-to-value band and fee structure. For a fuller picture of where current UK mortgage rates sit by term and loan-to-value, the dedicated rates page tracks the position as it moves.
Lenders are raising rates while the Bank of England holds
The rises are lender-driven rather than base-rate-driven. Bank Rate has stood at 3.75% since December 2025, held again by 6-3 on 17 September 2026, yet swap rates above 4.70% have pushed fixed pricing higher with no base rate move. The next decision lands on 5 November with a new set of Bank forecasts.
In June the traffic ran the other way: lenders trimmed margins as funding conditions eased, and HSBC and TSB were still announcing reductions in the second week of that month. The turn came from the swap market. Three members of the Monetary Policy Committee have voted for a rise to 4% at each of the last two meetings, inflation reached 3.1% in August, and market pricing now makes a quarter-point rise on 5 November more likely than not, with the first rise fully priced by December and the curve peaking near 4.9% in early 2028.
Fixed deals are priced off that expected path, not off today's Bank Rate, which is why pricing has climbed while the rate itself has not moved all year. Our coverage of whether mortgage rates are going up tracks each round of repricing as lenders move.
Why are borrowers still piling into two-year fixed deals?
Moneyfacts search data shows the share of borrowers comparing two-year fixed deals rose from 48.4% in February to 55.9% in June 2026, while five-year demand fell from 27.7% to 22.9%. Most are taking a calculated position that they will refinance onto lower pricing within two years.
What makes the shift striking is that it has survived the autumn repricing. Borrowers kept choosing the shorter fix through the falls of early summer and are still choosing it now that pricing has turned higher, in effect paying for the freedom to revisit their rate sooner.
That is a market-wide judgement that the 2026 rate spike proves temporary, and it is a judgement, not a certainty. If pricing is higher in two years, the shorter fix simply rolls into a more expensive market, and with three Committee members already voting for 4% that outcome is live. What the market is pricing for the Bank of England base rate offers one forward-looking reference point, though traded expectations shift quickly and are no guarantee of where mortgage pricing settles.
Should you fix for two or five years in this market?
Neither term is the right answer for every case. The average five-year fix now prices slightly above the average two-year, 5.94% against 5.92%, so certainty no longer carries a discount. A two-year fix buys the option to refinance sooner. Fees over repeated remortgage cycles, early repayment charges and your own plans decide which wins.
Cost is more than the headline rate. Fixing for two years means a second product fee, a second application and a second round of rate risk inside the same five-year window, and those costs land whether or not pricing has improved by then. A five-year fix removes that churn but typically carries heavier early repayment charges in its early years, which matters if a move, a sale or a lump-sum repayment is realistic within the term.
This is also where the retention offer from your current lender needs context. A switch deal can look competitive in isolation, yet a different lender may price your loan-to-value band more keenly once fees are included. Weighing that offer against the whole of market, on your actual loan size and term, is the comparison that settles the two-or-five question properly.
To weigh a two-year fix against a five-year deal on your own figures, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
What this means if your fixed rate ends in 2026 or 2027
A deal ending in the next six months meets a market that is repricing upwards, so the window matters more than it did in June. Most lenders allow a new rate to be reserved ahead of the end date, often with a switch down if pricing improves, and lapsing onto a standard variable rate averaging 7.13% remains the expensive route.
Reserving early behaves differently in a rising market than a falling one. Where a lender permits a switch down before completion, the reservation acts as a ceiling on what you pay, so locking ahead of the 5 November decision costs little and waiting removes the option if lenders reprice again. For those staying with their existing lender, our product transfer mortgage guide explains how a switch works, what it costs and when a full remortgage beats it.
Between now and the November decision, the moving parts are the September inflation print, swap rates and how far lenders pass higher funding costs into fixed pricing. Our UK mortgage rate forecast hub tracks each of those drivers as they land.
If your current fixed rate ends within the next six months, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
Back to Lender Behaviour and Deals
The information provided in this article is for general guidance only and does not constitute personal or regulated financial advice. If you'd like to understand what these moves could mean for you, speak to Mortgage One. We can explain your options and timings based on your specific circumstances.
Frequently asked questions
1. Why are mortgage rates rising in September 2026?
Swap rates, which fixed mortgage pricing is built on, climbed above 4.70% as markets priced a Bank Rate rise by December and inflation reached 3.1%. Lenders passed that funding cost on, with several repricing more than once in the month. The Bank of England has not moved: Bank Rate has been held at 3.75% all year.
2. Could fixed rates return to their June 2026 levels?
Not while markets price Bank Rate rising before it falls. The June averages of 5.68% and 5.63% were set when swap rates were easing. Swaps have since climbed above 4.70%, so a return to those levels needs the rate outlook itself to turn, not just lender competition.
3. Is it better to fix for two or five years?
It depends on your circumstances rather than on the market alone. A two-year fix suits borrowers who value the option to refinance sooner and can absorb rate risk at renewal. A five-year fix suits those who prioritise payment certainty and expect to stay put. Fees, early repayment charges and your plans over the term usually decide it.
4. What happens when my fixed rate ends?
Unless you arrange a new deal, the mortgage usually reverts to your lender's standard variable rate, which typically sits well above new fixed pricing and can change at the lender's discretion. Most borrowers avoid that step-up by arranging a product transfer or a remortgage before the current deal finishes.
5. Can I arrange a new deal before my current fix ends?
Yes. You do not need to wait until the end date. Many lenders allow a new rate to be reserved in advance, and where pricing improves before completion it can often be reviewed. Acting early also protects against drifting onto the standard variable rate if timelines slip.
6. How does a broker help when fixed rates are moving this often?
Deals are appearing and being withdrawn quickly, and pricing differs widely between lenders. A broker with access to the whole of market can compare your current lender's retention offer against what other lenders price for your loan-to-value band, monitor pricing through to completion and handle the paperwork for a switch or remortgage.