Next Bank of England Meeting: Sixth Hold, Same Three Votes for 4%
The next Bank of England meeting concludes on Thursday 5 November 2026 and comes with a new Monetary Policy Report. On 17 September the Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% for a sixth time, again by 6-3, with the same three members voting for 4%. Inflation is 3.1% and the Bank says it is likely to rise further, so November is where the case for a rise gets tested. Mortgage One is a whole of market mortgage adviser helping borrowers reserve and compare fixed deals ahead of the November Bank Rate decision.
For a free initial consultation on locking a rate before the 5 November announcement, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
When is the next Bank of England meeting and when is the decision?
The next Bank of England meeting concludes on Thursday 5 November 2026, with Bank Rate announced at 12 noon alongside the minutes and the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. One more meeting follows in 2026, on Thursday 17 December. The first provisional 2027 date is Thursday 4 February, also a Monetary Policy Report meeting.
Remaining Bank of England meeting dates:
· Thursday 5 November 2026, with the quarterly Monetary Policy Report
· Thursday 17 December 2026
· Thursday 4 February 2027, with the Monetary Policy Report
· Thursday 18 March 2027
· Thursday 29 April 2027, with the Monetary Policy Report
· Thursday 17 June 2027
· Thursday 29 July 2027, with the Monetary Policy Report
· Thursday 16 September 2027
· Thursday 4 November 2027, with the Monetary Policy Report
· Thursday 16 December 2027
November carries more weight than September did. It is a forecast-round meeting, so the Committee publishes new projections alongside the vote, and it will have the September inflation print and a further labour market release in hand. That is enough to judge whether the energy shock has reached services inflation and pay settlements or stayed in the headline number. Forecast-round meetings are where policy direction tends to turn, and the September minutes have already said it is not appropriate to wait too long for evidence of second-round effects before responding. For the full series of decisions since 1975, our base rate history chart puts the current hold in context.
What did the Bank of England decide on 17 September 2026?
The Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026, voting 6-3, the sixth hold of the year. Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill again voted for an immediate rise to 4%, the same split as 30 July. Bank Rate has been unchanged since the cut to 3.75% in December 2025.
The minutes are more hawkish than the vote. The Committee judged the risks to inflation to be tilted further to the upside than at the July Monetary Policy Report, and said it stands ready to act as necessary to keep inflation on track for 2%. The six who held were concerned about energy prices keeping inflation above target for longer, but wanted more evidence of second-round effects in pay and prices before moving. Two of them, Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor, put particular weight on slack in the economy and the already restrictive level of Bank Rate.
The three who voted for 4% made the risk management case. They see the inflation surge peaking in early 2027, just as wage settlements are agreed, with slack in the labour market already past its peak. On their reading a proactive rise anchors expectations at lower cost than correcting course later. The Committee also voted unanimously to run its stock of government bond holdings down to zero through a multi-year plan, with £20 billion of annual sales alongside maturing gilts until 2034.
The August inflation print, published the morning before the vote, gave both camps a number. Consumer Prices Index inflation rose to 3.1% in the year to August 2026 from 2.9% in July, more than a full point above target and enough to trigger an open letter from the Governor to the Chancellor. Around 0.7 percentage points of that overshoot came from energy, mostly motor fuels. Services inflation held at 3.4%, unchanged from July and down from 4.5% in March. The headline is moving the wrong way, the underlying measure is not, and each side of the Committee can point to the number that suits it.
How the MPC vote has flipped from four cuts to three hikes
In February 2026 four of nine members voted to cut Bank Rate to 3.5%. By 30 July three were voting to raise it to 4%, and on 17 September the same three voted the same way. The Committee moved one vote further towards a rise at every meeting from March to July, then held its shape.
The 2026 record, meeting by meeting:
· 5 February: held 5-4, with four members voting to cut to 3.5%
· 19 March: held 9-0
· 30 April: held 8-1, with one member voting to rise to 4%
· 18 June: held 7-2, with two members voting to rise to 4%
· 30 July: held 6-3, with three members voting to rise to 4%
· 17 September: held 6-3, with the same three members voting to rise to 4%
Read down that list and the direction is unambiguous, even if September paused it. Six meetings, five different splits, and the last two identical. Two more members switching would still produce a rise, and the three already there are not marginal figures: Huw Pill is the Bank's Chief Economist. What September showed is that a 3.1% headline print on its own does not move the centre of the Committee. Evidence of second-round effects would.
Their stated reasons have hardened since July. Catherine Mann, Megan Greene and Huw Pill now argue together that the escalation and duration of the Middle East conflict keeps pushing energy and food prices higher, that global pressures from AI supply constraints and El Niño add to it, and that slack in the labour market has already peaked. On their view, setting policy as if second-round effects were coming and correcting later would cost the economy less than the reverse.
For a borrower none of that is academic. Swap markets read vote splits, which is why fixed pricing can move on a meeting where the rate did not. Our interest rate projection tracks where that path is heading over the coming quarters.
Will the Bank of England raise interest rates in November?
Market pricing now makes a quarter-point rise on 5 November more likely than not, at roughly a 67% chance, while most named forecasters still expect a hold. The minutes describe upside risks greater than in July and a Committee ready to act, with the first rise fully priced by December and the curve peaking near 4.9% in early 2028.
Forecasters are split rather than settled. Bank of America expects no change through 2026 and Oxford Economics sees the hold running well into 2027. ING expects 3.75% through the year end. Capital Economics says events in the Middle East have increased the chances of a rise at some point, and Victoria Scholar at Interactive Investor expects roughly one quarter-point rise by year end. Nine in ten of the 64 economists in the Reuters poll before the meeting expected no change through 2026. That spread of views is itself the point: a year ago every forecaster agreed on the direction and disagreed only on timing.
What would tip two more votes is now the November forecast round. The Bank's own projections in the November Monetary Policy Report will show whether it expects the energy shock to feed through into pay and prices in 2027, and the Committee has said the policy stance depends on the scale and duration of that shock. A September inflation print above 3.1% with services turning back up would give the dissenters their evidence. A softer print would let the centre hold again and push the argument to December. Either way, fixed mortgage pricing will move on the signal in the minutes and the forecasts, not on the rate itself.
The political calendar sits underneath all of this. Andy Burnham took office as Prime Minister on 20 July, the Autumn Budget is still to be framed, and gilt yields have been moving on fiscal expectations since. Our note on Andy Burnham and UK mortgage rates sets out how that channel feeds through to fixed pricing, and our analysis of whether to fix your mortgage now or wait weighs that decision against it.
Why swap rates matter more than the base rate right now
Fixed mortgages are priced from swap rates, not Bank Rate. Swaps price the expected path of Bank Rate over the fix, so a 6-3 vote lifts them even when the rate does not move. That is why lenders repriced fixed deals higher in July, lower in August and higher again through September, with no Bank Rate change in between.
This is the single most useful thing to understand about mortgage pricing, and almost nothing written about base rate decisions explains it. A hold does not mean fixed rates hold. Our swap rates and lender margin chart plots the swap line against the average five-year fix every month since 2009, and the gap between them is where the lender's capital, operating cost, risk and profit sit.
Moneyfacts put the average two-year fix at 5.92% and the average five-year at 5.94% on 25 September 2026, after Barclays, Halifax, TSB, Leeds Building Society, Kensington and BM Solutions raised fixed rates late in the month, with several lenders repricing more than once in September and some moves reaching 0.43 percentage points. The average standard variable rate sat at 7.13%. The Bank's own minutes put the quoted two-year fixed rate around 95 basis points above its level before the conflict began. Where each loan-to-value band prices today is on our UK mortgage rates chart, and the current two-year versus five-year comparison is on our current UK mortgage rates page.
The best buy table tells a different story from the averages. Market-leading two-year fixes carry four-figure product fees precisely because the headline rate sits at or below the swap, and no lender funds below cost. The fee is what restores the margin, which is why a best buy and the lowest total cost for your actual loan size are frequently different products.
If you want the swap-adjusted view of your own options rather than a best buy table, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
What a 0.25% rate move actually costs each month
On a 25-year repayment mortgage a 0.25% rise adds roughly £22 a month on £150,000, £37 on £250,000 and £60 on £400,000 at current rate levels. Tracker holders feel that within a billing cycle of any decision. Fixed-rate holders feel nothing on the day, which is precisely why the meeting is the wrong thing to watch.
The monthly effect of a quarter-point move, 25-year repayment basis, from a starting rate of 5.5%:
· £150,000: about £22 a month, £270 a year
· £250,000: about £37 a month, £450 a year
· £400,000: about £60 a month, £720 a year
Set that against the number that actually hurts. Rolling off a 4.5% fix onto an average standard variable rate of 7.13% adds around £400 a month on a £250,000 repayment mortgage over 25 years. That is eleven quarter-point base rate rises arriving on a single day, and it happens automatically to anyone who lets a deal expire without acting. Our standard variable rate chart shows how slowly that revert rate has followed Bank Rate down.
The base rate decision is a rounding error next to the deal-end date. If you are on a tracker and weighing whether to move onto a fix before November, our fixed or tracker mortgage comparison sets out both sides.
Should you fix before the 5 November decision?
Most lenders allow a new rate to be reserved up to six months before completion, with a switch down if pricing improves before you complete. That option is worth more with three members still voting for 4% and the market pricing a rise by December. The date that governs the decision is your deal-end date, not the meeting date.
Reserving is not committing. Where a lender permits a switch down, the reservation behaves as a ceiling on what you pay rather than a fixed choice, so locking early costs the borrower very little and locking late removes the option entirely. Terms differ by lender and by product, and that difference is worth checking before you pick on rate alone.
The second half of the decision is the fee, and this is where headline comparison falls apart. Take a 4.20% two-year fix with a £999 fee against a fee-free alternative. Over the two-year term, on a 25-year repayment basis, the fee-loaded product only wins up to a crossover rate that moves with loan size:
· £150,000: the fee-loaded deal wins only if the fee-free alternative is above about 4.54%
· £250,000: the crossover sits at about 4.40%
· £400,000: the crossover sits at about 4.33%
The larger the loan, the more the fee spreads and the more a low headline rate wins. On smaller loans a fee-free product frequently beats a visibly better rate. Sourcing systems rank on headline rate by default, which is how borrowers end up in the wrong product with the right-looking number.
Timing and product structure are separate decisions and both need answering. If you are weighing a product transfer against moving lender, the remortgaging guide compares the two routes on total cost rather than headline rate, and the product transfer guide covers how a switch with your existing lender works before 5 November.
Figures as of 28 September 2026, London.
If your deal ends inside the next six months and you have not yet reserved a rate for the autumn, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
Back to Rate Forecast and Economic Drivers
The information provided in this article is for general guidance only and does not constitute personal or regulated financial advice. If you'd like to understand what these moves could mean for you, speak to Mortgage One. We can explain your options and timings based on your specific circumstances.
FAQs
1. When is the next Bank of England meeting?
Thursday 5 November 2026, with the decision announced at 12 noon UK time alongside the minutes and the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. The final 2026 date is Thursday 17 December. The 2027 provisional dates begin on Thursday 4 February.
2. What date is the next Bank of England interest rate meeting after November?
Thursday 17 December 2026, the final decision of the year. The first 2027 meeting is Thursday 4 February, which comes with the quarterly Monetary Policy Report and fresh forecasts, so it carries more weight than a summary-only meeting.
3. What did the Bank of England decide on 17 September 2026?
The Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6 votes to 3, the sixth hold of 2026. Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voted for an immediate rise to 4%, as they did on 30 July. Bank Rate has been unchanged since the cut in December 2025.
4. Will the Bank of England raise interest rates in November?
Market pricing makes it more likely than not, at roughly a 67% chance in late September, though most named forecasters still expect a hold. The same three members voted for 4% on 17 September, so two more would still need to switch. November is a forecast-round meeting with new projections, which is where a change of direction is most likely to be signalled.
5. When can we expect interest rates to go down again?
Not on current market pricing. Going into the September meeting, the market-implied path had the first rise by December 2026, and the curve now peaks near 4.9% in early 2028 before it turns lower. Some forecasters, including ING, expect cuts to resume in 2027. Fixed mortgage rates follow swap rates, which will move before any cut is announced.
6. Should I fix for 2 or 5 years now?
With the average five-year fix now priced a fraction above the average two-year, the rate gap barely matters. A two-year fix keeps you flexible if you expect the path to turn lower in 2027. A five-year fix buys certainty through a hardening outlook and an unsettled fiscal backdrop. Fees and loan size decide more than the headline rate.
7. How much would a 0.25% rate rise cost me each month?
On a 25-year repayment mortgage from a starting rate of 5.5%, roughly £22 a month on £150,000, £37 on £250,000 and £60 on £400,000. Tracker holders see it almost immediately. Anyone on a fixed rate sees nothing until their deal ends.
8. Should I reserve a mortgage rate now or wait for 5 November?
Where a lender allows a switch down, reserving early sets a ceiling rather than a commitment, so waiting rarely buys anything and can cost the option entirely. Mortgage One compares reservation windows, switch-down terms, fees and revert rates across the whole of market, and the more useful question is how many months remain on your current deal.