Next Bank of England Meeting: From Four Cut Votes to Three Hikes
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July 2026, but the vote came in at 6-3, with three members pushing for an immediate rise to 4%. Six months ago four members were voting to cut. That reversal, not the unchanged headline rate, is the signal worth acting on. Mortgage One is a whole of market mortgage adviser arranging residential and buy-to-let mortgages for borrowers repricing into a hardening Bank Rate outlook.
For a free initial consultation on your mortgage options ahead of the 30 July announcement, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July 2026, but the vote came in at 6-3, with three members pushing for an immediate rise to 4%. Six months ago four members were voting to cut. That reversal, not the unchanged headline rate, is the signal worth acting on. Mortgage One is a whole of market mortgage adviser arranging residential and buy-to-let mortgages for borrowers repricing into a hardening Bank Rate outlook.
For a free initial consultation on what the 6-3 vote means for your own deal, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
What did the Bank of England decide on 30 July 2026?
The Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July 2026, voting 6-3. Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voted for an immediate rise to 4%. In February the same Committee split 5-4, with four members voting to cut. CPI inflation stood at 2.6% in the year to June.
Andrew Bailey used the press conference to shut down the obvious reading, telling reporters not to leave the room thinking the Bank was edging towards a hike. He framed the hold as the right answer to global conditions that look more uncertain and inflationary, set against domestic conditions he described as, on balance, more benign.
The Governor still holds the centre of the Committee and the centre still wants to wait. But a Governor having to state out loud that a hike is not coming is itself new. Nobody was asking that question in February.
How the MPC vote has flipped from four cuts to three hikes
In February 2026 four of nine members voted to cut Bank Rate to 3.5%. By 30 July, three were voting to raise it to 4%. The Committee has moved one vote further in the hawkish direction at every meeting since March, when it held unanimously. None of that shows in the headline rate.
The 2026 record, meeting by meeting:
• 5 February: held 5-4, with four members voting to cut to 3.5%
• 19 March: held 9-0
• 30 April: held 8-1, with one member voting to rise to 4%
• 18 June: held 7-2, with two members voting to rise to 4%
• 30 July: held 6-3, with three members voting to rise to 4%
Read down that list and the direction is unambiguous. Five meetings, five different splits, moving one vote at a time in the same direction. Two more members switching would produce a rise, and the three already there are not marginal figures: Huw Pill is the Bank’s Chief Economist.
Their stated reasons differ. Catherine Mann pointed to the collapse of the United States and Iran memorandum of understanding and the widening Middle East conflict, which has put energy prices back on the agenda after eighteen months as a disinflationary force. Megan Greene argued a proactive rise would cut the odds of second-round effects taking hold. Huw Pill made the signalling case, that raising now sends a clear and unambiguous message about how the Committee will respond to commodity volatility.
For a borrower none of that is academic. Swap markets read vote splits, which is why fixed pricing can move on a meeting where the rate did not. Our interest rate projection tracks where that path is heading over the coming quarters.
Why swap rates matter more than the base rate right now
Fixed mortgages are priced from swap rates, not from Bank Rate. On 29 July 2026 the two-year swap sat at 4.20% and the five-year at 4.25%, both above the 3.75% Bank Rate. That 45 basis point premium is the market saying it expects Bank Rate to average higher than 3.75% over the next two years.
This is the single most useful thing to understand about mortgage pricing, and almost nothing written about base rate decisions explains it. A hold does not mean fixed rates hold. Swaps price the expected path, so a 6-3 vote lifts them even though the rate itself did not move.
The margin lenders add on top is where the rest of the picture sits. Moneyfacts put the average two-year fix at 5.54% and the average five-year at 5.57% on 21 July, which is roughly 1.34% and 1.32% over their respective swaps. That spread covers capital, operating cost, risk and profit.
Now look at the best buy. The market-leading two-year fix on 30 July was 4.13% with a £1,124 product fee, which is 7 basis points below the two-year swap. No lender funds below cost for charity. The fee is what restores the margin, and it is why a best buy table and the cheapest deal for your actual loan size are frequently different products.
If you want the swap-adjusted view of your own options rather than a best buy table, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
What a 0.25% rate move actually costs each month
On a 25-year repayment mortgage a 0.25% rise adds roughly £21 a month on £150,000, £35 on £250,000 and £56 on £400,000. Tracker holders feel that within a billing cycle of any decision. Fixed-rate holders feel nothing on the day, which is precisely why the meeting is the wrong thing to watch.
The monthly effect of a quarter-point move, 25-year repayment basis:
• £150,000: about £21 a month, £250 a year
• £250,000: about £35 a month, £417 a year
• £400,000: about £56 a month, £667 a year
Set that against the number that actually hurts. Rolling off a 4.13% fix onto an average standard variable rate of 7.13% adds around £450 a month on a £250,000 repayment mortgage over 25 years. That is thirteen quarter-point base rate rises arriving on a single day, and it happens automatically to anyone who lets a deal expire without acting.
The base rate decision is a rounding error next to the deal-end date. If you want the current picture on what is available across terms, current UK mortgage rates sets out where two-year and five-year pricing sits today.
When is the next Bank of England meeting after 30 July?
The next Bank of England meeting concludes on Thursday 17 September 2026, with the decision announced at 12 noon alongside the minutes. Two more follow in 2026: 5 November, which carries the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, and 17 December. The first provisional 2027 date is Thursday 4 February.
Remaining Bank of England meeting dates:
• Thursday 17 September 2026
• Thursday 5 November 2026, with the quarterly Monetary Policy Report
• Thursday 17 December 2026
• Thursday 4 February 2027
• Thursday 18 March 2027
• Thursday 29 April 2027
• Thursday 17 June 2027
• Thursday 29 July 2027
• Thursday 16 September 2027
• Thursday 4 November 2027
• Thursday 16 December 2027
September carries more weight than July did. It sits after two further inflation prints and two more labour market releases, so the Committee will have evidence on whether the energy shock is reaching services inflation and pay settlements rather than sitting in headline CPI. The 5 November meeting matters more again, because forecast-round meetings are where policy direction tends to turn.
Politics is the third variable now. Andy Burnham took office as Prime Minister on 20 July, and expectations of looser fiscal policy have been moving gilt yields and swaps since. Our note on Andy Burnham and UK mortgage rates sets out how that channel feeds through to fixed pricing.
Should you fix before the 17 September decision?
Most lenders allow a new rate to be reserved up to six months before completion, with a switch down if pricing improves before you complete. That option is worth more with three MPC members voting for 4%. The date that governs the decision is your deal-end date, not the meeting date.
Reserving is not committing. Where a lender permits a switch down, the reservation behaves as a ceiling on what you pay rather than a fixed choice, so locking early costs the borrower very little and locking late removes the option entirely. Terms differ by lender and by product, and that difference is worth checking before you pick on rate alone.
The second half of the decision is the fee, and this is where headline comparison falls apart. Take that 4.13% two-year fix with its £1,124 fee against a fee-free alternative. Over the two-year term, on a 25-year repayment basis, the fee-loaded product only wins up to a crossover rate that moves with loan size:
• £150,000: the fee-loaded deal wins only if the fee-free alternative is above about 4.68%
• £250,000: the crossover sits at about 4.46%
• £400,000: the crossover sits at about 4.34%
The larger the loan, the more the fee spreads and the more a low headline rate wins. On smaller loans a fee-free product frequently beats a visibly better rate. Sourcing systems rank on headline rate by default, which is how borrowers end up in the wrong product with the right-looking number.
Timing and product structure are separate decisions and both need answering. Our guide on whether you should fix your mortgage now covers the first, and if you are weighing a product transfer against moving lender, the remortgaging guide compares the two routes on total cost rather than headline rate. If the choice is between locking and staying variable, our fixed or tracker mortgage comparison sets out both sides.
To have your deal-end date, fee structure and lock window reviewed across the whole of market before 17 September, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
Back to Rate Forecast and Economic Drivers
The information provided in this article is for general guidance only and does not constitute personal or regulated financial advice. If you’d like to understand what these moves could mean for you, speak to Mortgage One. We can explain your options and timings based on your specific circumstances.
FAQs
1. When is the next Bank of England meeting?
Thursday 17 September 2026, announced at 12 noon UK time alongside the minutes. The remaining 2026 dates are 5 November, which carries the quarterly Monetary Policy Report, and 17 December. The 2027 provisional dates begin on Thursday 4 February.
2. What did the Bank of England decide on 30 July 2026?
The Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6 votes to 3. Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voted for an immediate rise to 4%. Bank Rate has been unchanged since the cut in December 2025.
3. Why are fixed mortgage rates higher than the Bank of England base rate?
Because fixed rates are priced from swap rates rather than Bank Rate. On 29 July 2026 the two-year swap was 4.20% against a 3.75% Bank Rate, a 45 basis point premium, and lenders then add roughly 1.3% on average for capital, cost and risk.
4. Will the Bank of England raise interest rates in September?
It is a live possibility rather than the base case. Three of nine members voted for 4% on 30 July, so two more would need to switch. Andrew Bailey stated that the Bank is not edging towards a hike, but the vote has moved one place hawkish at every meeting since March.
5. How much would a 0.25% rate rise cost me each month?
On a 25-year repayment mortgage, roughly £21 a month on £150,000, £35 on £250,000 and £56 on £400,000. Tracker holders see it almost immediately. Anyone on a fixed rate sees nothing until their deal ends.
6. Is a low rate with a large product fee worth it?
It depends on loan size. A 4.13% two-year fix carrying a £1,124 fee beats a fee-free alternative only up to about 4.68% on a £150,000 loan, about 4.46% on £250,000 and about 4.34% on £400,000. The bigger the loan, the more a fee-loaded low rate wins.
7. Should I reserve a mortgage rate now or wait for September?
Where a lender allows a switch down, reserving early sets a ceiling rather than a commitment, so waiting rarely buys anything and can cost the option entirely. The more useful question is how many months remain on your current deal, not what the Committee does on 17 September.
8. Does a broker actually get a better outcome than going direct?
A broker is comparing the total cost of the deal rather than the headline rate, which is where fee structures, reservation windows, switch-down terms and revert rates decide the outcome. Mortgage One reviews those terms across the whole of market rather than one lender’s range.