Bank of England
Base Rate Projection

Updated 25th May 2024
Market Consensus Forecast for BoE Rates implied from SONIA Futures
This Market Consensus Forecast is generated using data on publicly-traded Sterling Overnight Interbank Average Futures and other closely related benchmark interest rates. Using this information a forward term structure for the full yield curve is generated. The term structure is interpolated and smoothed using a three-factor parametrization model, generating the final forecast. This forecast can be interpreted as the periodic mean market-expected values of Sterling Overnight Rates.

The Sterling Overnight Interbank Average Rate is a measure of overnight lending rates between banks using British sterling.  It is administered by the Bank of England and is frequently used as a standardized measure of risk-free interest rates by U.K. Authorities.
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