Article updated 6 November 2026
The fix or wait question changed on 5 November, when the Bank of England raised Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4% on an 8-1 vote, with one member wanting 4.25%. Fixed deals already carried most of that rise, so the question now is the path beyond it, and the market prices close to three more rises within a year. This page weighs the decision against that backdrop: where pricing stands, what is already priced in, and how to protect yourself before the next decision on 17 December. Mortgage One is a whole of market mortgage adviser helping borrowers decide whether to fix now or wait as the rate outlook turns higher.
For a free initial consultation about securing a rate before the 17 December decision, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
Where UK mortgage rates stand after the 5 November decision
The Bank of England base rate is 4%, raised from 3.75% on 5 November alongside a new Monetary Policy Report, with the next decision due on 17 December. The lowest two-year fix from a major lender sits at 4.96% with HSBC, and five-year fixes from HSBC and Santander sit at 4.99%, all at 60% loan to value with a £999 fee, checked 6 November. Two-year trackers start at 4.24% with Halifax, 0.24 points over the new base rate and still below the cheapest fixes, and our running record of lenders cutting mortgage rates tracks each repricing wave as it lands.
The 5 November vote was 8-1 for a quarter-point rise, with Catherine Mann voting for a half-point move to 4.25%, after a 6-3 hold in September. What matters for fixed pricing is not the decision itself but the path signalled around it, and the Bank said policy is not on a pre-set path. Our report on how the Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% sets out what the rise adds to a typical mortgage payment. Our guide to the next Bank of England meeting tracks what traders expect on 17 December and at the decisions that follow it.
September's inflation data hardened the case for a rise: Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation jumped to 3.5% in the year to September from 3.1% in August, the highest reading in a year, and services inflation, the measure the committee watches most closely, rose to 3.7%. The Bank now expects inflation to rise to around 5% by the middle of 2027, which is the case it gave for raising rates rather than waiting.
Why lenders are putting fixed mortgage rates back up
Fixed rates moved up through the autumn because the market stopped pricing cuts and started pricing rises, and lenders price fixed deals off that expectation rather than off the base rate itself. The repricing has not been one-way: HSBC cut selected fixes on 15 October and reversed the cut five days later, while Halifax trimmed rates on 9 and 20 October after a rise at the start of the month. Our analysis of why mortgage rates are going up names the lenders that moved ahead of the Bank of England.
The transmission is mechanical. Gilt yields are the price the government pays to borrow, swap rates track them closely, and fixed mortgage pricing is built from swaps plus a lender margin. With the November rise almost fully priced before the vote, most of that move was already inside the fixed deals on sale when the Bank acted, which is why fixes have wobbled in both directions rather than climbed in a straight line.
HSBC's two-year fix at 60% loan to value tells the story of the autumn in one product: 4.79% in mid September, 5.04% a week later, and 4.96% today after October's round trip. Pricing that volatile rewards borrowers who reserve a deal when they see one they can afford, because most lenders let you switch to a cheaper product if pricing improves before completion.
Will the Bank of England raise the base rate again on 17 December?
Not on current market pricing. The SONIA curve on the 4 November reading sits at 3.96% for December, just under the new 4% base rate, and climbs to 4.14% by February 2027, so the next rise is priced for the new year. With one member voting for a bigger move and inflation expected near 5%, a December rise cannot be ruled out.
The Autumn Budget, presented on 28 October, landed a week before the vote. Tax and borrowing decisions feed straight into the gilt yields that price fixed mortgages, so the bond market's reading of the Budget can move fixed pricing without the Bank moving at all, and it matters to borrowers as much as any single vote. Our guide to gilt yields explains that chain from bond market to mortgage offer in full.
The short-term interest rate curve slopes upward through 2027, which is market pricing consistent with the next move being up rather than down. Our Bank of England base rate forecast tracks where SONIA futures put the path week by week.
What swap rates say about the next six months
The SONIA curve, the market's forward pricing of Bank Rate, puts the base rate at about 3.96% in December, 4.33% by April 2027 and 4.65% by October 2027 on the 4 November reading. That is no further move priced for December and close to three more rises within twelve months, which is why five-year fixes at 4.99% sit close to where the market expects the base rate itself to settle.
For the fix or wait decision the message is uncomfortable but useful: the 5 November result told borrowers almost nothing the curve had not already told lenders. You can read the curve yourself on our chart of swap rates in the UK at two and five years, with Bank Rate drawn alongside. The risk that matters to fixed pricing over the next six months is the path steepening further, through a hot inflation print or a sell-off in gilts, not a single move the market has already paid for.
The chart shows where the market prices Bank Rate over the next five years, read live from the same SONIA data as our Bank of England base rate forecast. Lenders price fixed rates off this curve, which is why fixes can rise weeks before the Bank moves.
Fix now, take a tracker, or wait after the November decision
Three routes, priced from tables checked 5 and 6 November: the lowest two-year fix is 4.96%, HSBC's five-year fix is 4.99%, and the lowest two-year tracker is 4.24% with Halifax at 0.24 points over the base rate. The 5 November rise took that tracker from 3.99% to 4.24%, still below the cheapest fixes, but the curve prices close to three more rises within a year, which would carry it to about 4.92% by next autumn.
The tracker case is flexibility: most big-lender trackers carry no early repayment charge, so a tracker can be a holding position you leave for a fix if the outlook worsens. Our tracker mortgage rates table compares the pay rates, margins and exit terms by lender.
The fix case is certainty at a known price: you give up the cheaper first year a tracker offers in exchange for a payment that cannot move while the curve climbs. The arithmetic turns on how fast rises arrive. A Halifax tracker taken today beats a 4.96% fix over two years only if the base rate averages below about 4.72%, before fees. The forward curve averages about 4.51% over the next two years, so on market pricing the tracker edges it, and it loses if rises come faster than the market expects.
If your current deal ends within the next six months and you are weighing a fix against a tracker, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
Mortgage One's working view after 5 November
The 5 November rise to 4% was already carried in fixed pricing, and the balance of risk for borrowers sits in the path beyond it rather than the day itself. For borrowers with a deal ending within six months, securing a rate now costs nothing if pricing later improves and protects you if it does not. Set against the full UK base rate history, a base rate at 4% still sits below the long-run average rather than above it, which is not how most borrowers read it.
Three forces are pushing the same way at once: inflation printing above forecast at 3.5%, a rate-setting committee that voted 8-1 to raise with its one dissent for a bigger move, and a forward curve that prices the base rate near 4.7% by late 2027. None of them guarantees the path plays out, but together they have stripped out the assumption that carried the waiting strategy through 2025, that the next move was obviously down. That assumption no longer holds.
This is a view, not a guarantee, and it would change on evidence: dovish language at the 17 December decision, a soft inflation print and calmer gilt markets would put cuts back on the table. Even then, fixed pricing tends to lag on the way down, which is why acting on today's deals while keeping a switch option open beats waiting for a perfect signal that may not come.
Should you fix your mortgage now, or wait?
There is no risk-free answer, but the asymmetry still favours acting. Fixing secures today's pricing before the 17 December decision and any further rise in the curve, and most lenders let you switch to a cheaper deal if pricing improves before completion. Waiting only pays if cuts come back into view, and the evidence for that has weakened all year.
The case for waiting rests on cuts resuming and pricing improving. Our analysis of will mortgage rates go down sets out how likely that is on current pricing. Borrowers still inside a fix who want to move sooner can read how remortgaging before your fixed rate ends is costed before they decide. The risk is that the improvement does not come, or reverses, while a lapsed deal drops onto the lender’s standard variable rate, which is usually far more expensive than a new fixed or tracker deal. The case for acting is that certainty has real value when the pressure points upward, and you can compare current fixed deals and reserve one now while keeping the option to switch if pricing falls before completion.
You can line up a new deal with your existing lender usually from four to six months before the current one ends and still take a better rate if one appears before the switch completes.
A full mortgage offer, once issued, is also usually valid for six months. Both mechanics make reserving early a one-way option rather than a gamble: you cap your downside without giving up the upside.
How long should you fix for: two years or five?
It depends on how settled you want to be against how much flexibility you want to keep. A two-year fix keeps you mobile if you expect the cycle to turn by 2028 and want to reprice sooner. A five-year fix buys certainty through a volatile outlook, at the cost of locking in today's rate for longer.
If you believe rates fall from here, a shorter term lets you return to the market sooner, though you face whatever pricing exists when it ends. If you value a predictable payment and want to stop watching the market, a longer term does that, with early repayment charges the main trade-off if your plans change. The same logic shapes choosing between a fixed and a tracker deal, where you trade certainty for the chance of gains if the base rate falls. Some lenders now price the two terms almost identically, and our NatWest fixed and tracker rates table shows a 5-year fix sitting below the 2-year at all three of its LTV bands.
Product transfer or full remortgage when your deal ends
A product transfer keeps you with your current lender on a new deal, and tends to be faster, cheaper and lighter on paperwork because there is often no new affordability check. Halifax, for example, opens its product transfer window four months before a deal ends, and our Halifax mortgage rates page sets its retention route against its new business pricing. A full remortgage moves you to another lender, which can win on rate or let you borrow more, but takes longer and means fresh underwriting.
A transfer can suit borrowers who want speed and certainty, or whose circumstances have changed in ways that make a fresh application harder. Moving lender tends to win where the rate difference is large enough to justify the work, or where you want additional borrowing. Our remortgaging guide weighs the two routes on total cost, and our remortgage rates table shows the lowest deals by lender this week.
Our product transfer guide covers how a switch with your existing lender works in practice, and it is worth starting early because deals can be reserved months ahead.
Timing the move matters as much as choosing the route, and our analysis of when to remortgage as fixed rates ease covers how to judge that window.
Who the 2026 fix-expiry wave hits hardest
The borrowers most exposed are those rolling off the very low fixed rates taken out in 2021 and 2023. They are repricing into a market where deals sit well above what they have been paying, so the gap between acting and drifting onto a standard variable rate is at its widest for this group.
For this cohort, sitting on the fence has a direct cost. Each month on a standard variable rate after a fix ends is usually far more expensive than a new fixed or tracker deal, so the value of reviewing options before the deal expires is highest precisely for the people who saw the lowest rates.
How Mortgage One helps you weigh the decision
Mortgage One reviews the fix-now-or-wait decision against your own deal, timeline and circumstances, and weighs a product transfer against a full remortgage on your behalf. With access to the whole of market, the firm places residential, buy-to-let, expat and seafarer cases, so the recommendation reflects what you can actually secure.
Rates, lender criteria and product availability vary by lender and change frequently, so the right answer is the one built around your situation rather than a general rule. A short conversation establishes where you stand and what is available to you now.
For a whole of market view of whether to act now or wait for the 17 December decision, call 01202 155992 or contact Mortgage One.
Back to interest rate predictions UK
The information provided in this article is for general guidance only and does not constitute personal or regulated financial advice. If you’d like to understand what these moves could mean for you, speak to Mortgage One. We can explain your options and timings based on your specific circumstances.
FAQs
1. Should I fix my mortgage in 2026? It depends on your timeline, your appetite for risk and the deals available to you. With Bank Rate raised to 4% on 5 November and the forward curve pointing higher through 2027, waiting for a cut is no longer the safe default it once looked. Fixing removes uncertainty, and most lenders let you switch down if pricing improves before completion. A review against your own circumstances is the only way to judge it.
2. Is now a good time to remortgage? If your current deal ends within the next six months, it is usually worth starting now. Many lenders let you reserve a new rate up to six months ahead and switch to a better one if pricing improves before completion, so you can secure today’s pricing while keeping some flexibility.
3. Will mortgage rates go down in 2026? Nobody can promise either way, but the pressure points the other way. The Bank raised the base rate to 4% on 5 November and the market puts it at about 4.3% by April 2027, and lenders have already built most of that into fixed pricing. Fixed pricing follows swap rates, which can move in either direction.
4. Should I fix for two years or five? A two-year fix keeps you flexible if you expect to reprice sooner, for example if you think the cycle turns by 2028. A five-year fix gives a predictable payment through a volatile outlook. The trade-off is flexibility against certainty, and early repayment charges if your plans change mid-term.
5. What is a product transfer, and is it better than remortgaging? A product transfer is a new deal with your existing lender, usually quicker and cheaper than moving and often without a fresh affordability check. It is not automatically better. A full remortgage can win on rate or let you borrow more. Which suits you depends on the numbers and your circumstances.
6. What happens if I do nothing when my fixed deal ends? You roll onto your lender’s standard variable rate, which is usually much higher than a new fixed or tracker deal. That normally means a jump in monthly payments. Reviewing your options before the deal ends is the simplest way to avoid paying the standard variable rate by default.
7. Did the Bank of England raise the base rate on 5 November 2026? Yes. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to raise Bank Rate by 0.25 points from 3.75% to 4%, with one member voting for 4.25%, and the next decision is due on 17 December 2026. Fixed mortgage pricing had already moved on the signal, so most fixed deals barely changed on the day, while tracker rates rose by the full quarter point.
8. How could the Autumn Budget affect mortgage rates? Through gilt yields. The Budget, presented on 28 October, set out tax and borrowing plans a week before the Bank decided. Gilt yields move closely with the swap rates that price fixed mortgages, so a Budget that unsettles investors pushes fixed pricing higher even with no Bank of England move.