Lock In Your Mortgage Now Before Rates Climb

If you’re thinking about buying a home, remortgaging or managing a buy-to-let property, now may be one of the better windows of opportunity to “lock in” a mortgage rate before upward pressure returns. While headline interest rates aren’t shooting higher today, the underlying indicators suggest that the risk of rates increasing again shouldn’t be ignored.

Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on a mortgage or any other debt secured on it.

What’s moving UK mortgage pricing today

• The official Bank of England (BoE) base rate is currently 4.0%, held at that level as inflation remains elevated.
• Average two- and five-year fixed mortgage deals — according to Moneyfacts — have edged up for the first time in eight months: two-year fixed from ~4.96% to ~4.98%; five-year fixed from ~5.00% to ~5.02%. Moneyfactscompare+1
• Commentary from market watchers suggests the UK economy is facing sticky inflation and tax-policy uncertainty (ahead of the autumn budget) which could feed into higher borrowing costs. The Guardian+1
• While there remains some expectation of future base-rate cuts, the timing and scale are uncertain — meaning lenders may be cautious and pricing may stay elevated or even increase. MoneyWeek+1

In short: rates have eased compared to their 2022-23 highs, but they are not heading rapidly downward — and there is mounting evidence that the “bottom” may be behind us rather than ahead.

Why now might be better than waiting

Inflation & economic uncertainty

Inflation in the UK remains significantly above the BoE target of 2%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the UK is likely to face the highest inflation in the G7 for this year and next. The Guardian Inflation that refuses to fall quickly often pushes swap‐rates higher (the rate at which banks lend to each other) and squeezes lender margins — which in turn means fixed-rate mortgage deals can rise even if the base rate is held.

Swap rates & deal availability

While the base rate is one part of the picture, many lenders base fixed mortgage pricing on longer-term funding costs (often represented by swap rates) and their own cost of capital. Even if the base rate stays the same, if markets expect future rises or slower cuts, fixed deals can increase. For example, Moneyfacts noted that the average fixed rates have moved up despite no immediate rate hike. Moneyfactscompare+1 Waiting may mean you miss the “sweet spot” in pricing before that shift.

Large cohort of deals ending

Industry commentary suggests many homeowners have fixed-deals expiring in the near term — and lenders are warning that “lock-in” demand ahead of the budget is rising, which could tighten supply of the very best deals. The Times If lots of borrowers chase new deals at the same time, margins may widen and pricing could move up.

Fixed-rate security

By moving now and fixing a rate, you gain protection from any future increases — whether from base rate rises or spreads creeping up. If rates drop later you may be able to switch, but if they rise you may be locked into higher costs. This is especially relevant for first-time buyers or remortgagers who plan several years of mortgage payments ahead.

What this means for different borrower types

First-time buyers

If you’re stepping onto the property ladder, securing a fixed rate now gives peace of mind for budgeting. With best-available rates hovering around the mid-4% to 5% mark for many borrowers, you’re still far below the peaks seen a few years ago. But remember: move-in costs, deposit size, mortgage fees and other costs still matter a lot. Internal link: first-time buyer mortgages

Remortgagers

If you’re nearing the end of a fixed term (or your deal ends soon), it’s wise to start comparing options now. If you wait too long you could be exposed to the lender’s standard variable rate (SVR), which may be higher — or find that your options become limited if lenders narrow their product offerings. Internal link: remortgage guidance

Buy-to-let landlords

For landlords, the same rate environment applies — but you also face regulatory, tax and rental-yield pressures. Fixing now may help stabilise your cost base and protect your assumptions on returns in what remains a challenging market. Internal link: buy-to-let mortgage advice

Key numbers at a glance

• BoE base rate: ~4.0% Bank of England+1

• Two-year fixed average (Moneyfacts): ~4.98% Moneyfactscompare+1

• Five-year fixed average (Moneyfacts): ~5.02% Moneyfactscompare+1

• Example active lender deals: -- e.g., from HSBC UK 5 year fixed at ~4.06% for some borrowers (≤60% LTV) though with specific criteria. HSBC UK

But don’t assume everything is risk-free

• Fixed-rate deals still vary hugely by loan-to-value (LTV), term, fees and product features.

• If your deal ends and you then jump on a new rate without checking, you still face payment increases.

• Although rates may have room to fall in the longer run, nothing is guaranteed — markets can reverse.

• Home‐buyers must still ensure full affordability: rates, fees, deposit and future costs all matter.

• This article is information only — it is not advice. Speak to a qualified mortgage adviser for your personal circumstances.

If you’d like help …

If you’d like to understand what today’s moves could mean for you, speak to a qualified mortgage adviser at Mortgage One. We can explain your options and timings based on your circumstances. Visit our homepage and explore our services such as first-time buyer mortgages, remortgage support and buy-to-let advice.

FAQs

Q1: Are mortgage rates going to rise soon?
There is no guarantee that rates will rise, but economic indicators (inflation, swap rates, upcoming budget) suggest the risk is meaningful. Rates could remain flat, drop or rise.

Q2: If I fix now and rates drop later, can I switch?
Yes — but check your mortgage’s early-repayment charges (ERCs) and whether switching is cost-effective. You’ll still need to compare whether the fees and affordability make sense.

Q3: Does the base rate being held mean fixed rates will automatically stay the same or fall?
Not necessarily. Fixed-rate mortgage pricing is influenced by swap rates, lender funding costs, competition and expectations of future rates — not just the base rate.

Q4: Should I choose a short fixed term or long fixed term?
That depends on your plans, affordability and risk-tolerance. A longer fix gives more security if you anticipate instability; a shorter fix may cost less upfront but expose you sooner to market changes.

Q5: I’m a landlord — does this apply to me as well?
Yes. Buy-to-let borrowers face the same interest‐rate environment, plus regulatory, tax and yield‐risk factors. Fixing your rate now may help stabilise your cost base in a challenging market.